The World Bank raised its growth forecast to 5.1% for this year and 4.7% for 2027, a 0.7 percentage point upgrade, pointing to AI-related exports as the main driver, which account for over 70% of recent export growth. This matters because the concentration cuts both ways: a lead economist flagged growth excluding AI-related goods as weak, meaning a slowdown in global AI investment could hit capital flows and trade simultaneously, a risk sharpened by a one-point US growth slowdown estimated to cost 0.8 points locally. Exporters, investors and policymakers may be affected, with the open question being whether the workforce's foundational skills gap, already flagged in prior reports, closes fast enough to broaden the growth base beyond AI before any downturn arrives.

 

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